Experience

They just don't get it.

Chris Broussard is reaching into his imagination for any reason to pick Miami to win. The statements he makes are too incredible to be real.

"J-Will will hit 3s."

Jason Williams has a career 32% 3-pt shooting percentage. In these 2006 playoffs, his 3-pt percentage has dropped to 24%.

"Antoine Walker will make 3s and plays at just the right time."

Walker's career 3-pt percentage is 33%. In these playoffs, he is at 34%. A slight improvement, but nothing spectacular. As far as his playmaking skill is concerned, he has a 1.33 assist to turnover ratio. In these playoffs, it drops to a ratio of 1.25. And just for kicks, Walker is shooting 58% from the free throw line.

Playoff experience seems to be the reason for most analysts to pick Miami. I say that experience is overrated and useless. Pau Gasol, who has been to the playoffs three times in a row, has yet to win a playoff game. Kobe Bryant, who has three championship rings, didn't make it out of the first round this year. In the 2004 Finals, Detroit beat the L.A. Lakers, who had Shaq, Kobe, Karl Malone, and Gary Payton as four of their starters. All four had NBA Finals experience. They were demolished by the Pistons.

A lack of experience isn't doom for that team. LeBron James, with no playoff experience, forced Detroit to play a game 7 in the second round. The L.A. Clippers forced a game 7 against the Phoenix Suns in the second round.

Shaq and Gary Payton just so happen to be on the roster for the Miami Heat. Pat Riley has experience, but his last attempt at winning a championship was well over a decade ago.

Experience is just the nice way of saying, "old."

Shaq is 34. Payton is 37. Alonzo Mourning is 36. Pat Riley is 61.

These games may go on past their bedtime.